20200605 Stocks surged and bonds sold off -

• The Fed’s two-day meeting is the big event for markets in the coming week, and traders are hoping for more details on stimulus and a possible new program.

(주요 경기 리포트 coming up..) 

"The Fed’s two-day meeting is the big event for markets in the coming week. There are a few economic reports, including

inflation data, the consumer price index Wednesday

and producer prices Thursday

Weekly jobless claims will be important Thursday to see if there’s a drop in continuing clams after May’s employment report showed a surprising record gain of 2.5 million jobs."

 

• The S&P 500 was very close to being back in the green for the year, adding 4.9% for the week.
• Strategists expect the market’s reopening trade to continue driving investors into cyclicals, like financials and industrials, and other stocks that will be do well in an economic recovery.
• The bond market joined in the reopening trade for the first time in the past week, and rates jumped as investors sold safety plays and moved into riskier assets.
• Stocks surged and bonds sold off after the surprise record gain of 2.5 million jobs in May, a sharp contrast to the loss of 8.3 million jobs expected by Wall Street economists.

 

 

 

 

- A cyclical stock is a stock that's price is affected by macroeconomic or systematic changes in the overall economy.

 

 

<고용보고서 발표 - gain of 2.5M jobs > 

• Stocks surged and bonds sold off after the surprise record gain of 2.5 million jobs in May, a sharp contrast to the loss of 8.3 million jobs expected by Wall Street economists.
• Industrials, financials and real estate led Friday’s rally, all sectors that benefit most from an economic rebound.
• Bonds have joined the reopening trade for the first time, selling off significantly this week, as data has improved.

실물 경기는 계속 안좋다고 했는데 주식시장은 올라갔고, 오늘 발표된 고용보고서가 그 이유를 일부 설명해준다. 

“The transports have been telling us the story long before yesterday’s airlines bonanza. The transports have been telling us for the last two weeks that the economy was picking up,”

“Sometimes you have to listen to what the market is telling us more than the tone of the news. We’ve had social unrest and demonstrations in every major city. It’s hard to separate that and the emotions you have from what’s truly the economy.” 

어쩌면 여러 지표상으로 실물 경기는 이미 좋아지고 있는 있던 걸지도 모르겠다. 

 

이번주 채권시장도 경제 재개에 영향을 받기 시작하면서, 10년 장기채 금리는 고용보고서 발표 직후 0.95%로 상승하였다. 

 

 

 

특히 Leisure 와 Hospitality 에서의 rebound.. 

Industrials and financials led stocks higher Friday morning with gains of 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Real estate was also strong, up more than 3.5%.

 

그럼에도,

Keon said the market move appears to have some momentum behind it, but he is still cautious, based on the fact valuations have risen so much. “We’re benefiting from the market’s rise, but we’re not all in,-"

 

 

달러 인덱스는 3주 연속 하락세

 

 

+) 섹터별 S&P map